Swingbot Forecast
Swing BTC · multi-day holds · paper-first proof
Last price
64,755.0
As-of bar
2026-08-07T16:00
Score factor
1.000
Accuracy
100.0% · strong
Model
learned_ridge_v1
Forward view
Tiny ridge model on 1h features. Horizons: 1h · 4h · 1d · 3d · 7d. Hourly check settles due forecasts and rates them. Learner runs 2×/day and upweights good predictions. Not wired into live entries yet.
| Horizon | Dir | Pred % | Pred price | Conf | Fit R² |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | flat | 0.013% | 64,763.4 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| 4h | up | 0.068% | 64,798.8 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| 1d | up | 0.090% | 64,813.6 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| 3d | down | -0.063% | 64,714.1 | 0.01 | 0.23 |
| 7d | flat | -0.020% | 64,742.0 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
Accuracy scoreboard
After a prediction’s horizon completes, the checker grades direction (hit/miss) and how far the % move was from the forecast. Settled 3 · pending 12.
| Horizon | N | Hits | Hit rate | Avg |error| | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | 0.020% | strong |
Rated predictions
Excellent/Good/Fair = right direction (tighter error is better). Miss = wrong direction. The learner upweights Excellent/Good when it retrains.
| As-of | Horizon | Dir | Pred % | Realized % | |Error| | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T16:00 | 7d | flat | -0.020% | —% | —% | Pending |
| 2026-08-07T16:00 | 3d | down | -0.063% | —% | —% | Pending |
| 2026-08-07T16:00 | 1d | up | 0.090% | —% | —% | Pending |
| 2026-08-07T16:00 | 4h | up | 0.068% | —% | —% | Pending |
| 2026-08-07T16:00 | 1h | flat | 0.013% | -0.003% | 0.016% | Excellent |
| 2026-08-07T15:00 | 7d | down | -0.303% | —% | —% | Pending |
| 2026-08-07T15:00 | 3d | flat | -0.034% | —% | —% | Pending |
| 2026-08-07T15:00 | 1d | up | 0.100% | —% | —% | Pending |
| 2026-08-07T15:00 | 4h | up | 0.074% | —% | —% | Pending |
| 2026-08-07T15:00 | 1h | flat | 0.021% | 0.011% | 0.010% | Excellent |
| 2026-08-07T14:00 | 7d | down | -0.136% | —% | —% | Pending |
| 2026-08-07T14:00 | 3d | up | 0.170% | —% | —% | Pending |
| 2026-08-07T14:00 | 1d | up | 0.108% | —% | —% | Pending |
| 2026-08-07T14:00 | 4h | flat | 0.029% | —% | —% | Pending |
| 2026-08-07T14:00 | 1h | flat | 0.010% | 0.043% | 0.033% | Excellent |
Learning
Twice-daily job re-fits weights from candle history + your rated forecasts. Good ratings teach more; misses teach less. Last learn 2026-08-07T17:22:45 · settled used 3 · recent runs: —
| Horizon | Learned hit | Baseline hit | Improved | Settled n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | 0.532 | 0.532 | yes | 3 |
| 4h | 0.343 | 0.343 | yes | 0 |
| 1d | 0.229 | 0.229 | yes | 0 |
| 3d | 0.235 | 0.235 | yes | 0 |
| 7d | 0.747 | 0.747 | yes | 0 |